Eurasian integration and the interstate conflict potential of the countries of the Central Asian region
Research Article
How to Cite
Seleznev I.A. Eurasian integration and the interstate conflict potential of the countries of the Central Asian region. Science. Culture. Society. 2022. Vol. 28. No. 1. P. 6-19. DOI: https://doi.org/10.19181/nko.2022.28.1.1 (in Russ.).
Abstract
The article considers external security challenges in the Central Asian region (CAR), the causes of interstate instability and the emergence of regional conflicts. This study was conducted within the framework of the theory of conflict. The main conflict-causing foreign policy factors in the CAR are: the presence of hotbeds of military conflicts near the countries of the region; the threat of the spread of instability in the countries of the region and the likelihood of armed provocations; the activities of international terrorist and radical organizations and groups, the strengthening of the positions of religious extremism in neighboring countries near the borders of the CAR countries; the strengthening of China's economic role and its penetration into the CAR, the growing dependence of the countries of the region on the PRC; the penetration of extra-regional, Western actors into the CAR; conflicting interethnic and interstate contradictions and territorial-border disputes. The problems of cross-border interaction and the general use of water and energy resources in the CAR are considered. The reasons for the emergence of interstate conflict situations are indicated. These are the shortage of water and energy resources; territorial and border disputes with neighbors and the claims of some states to regional leadership; unresolved territorial claims, accumulated territorial disputes between the CAR states with insufficient validity of borders. Various approaches to solving the problem of water scarcity in the CAR are analyzed. Conclusions and forecasts of developments regarding the development of Eurasian integration and ensuring Russia's national interests in the CAR are given. It is concluded that the current and prospective situation in the CAR is based on integration and conflict scenarios. These two categories make up a dialectical pair, with the help of which it is possible to understand and describe the processes in the CAR, and throughout the post-Soviet space. Probabilistic scenarios of the development of integration processes in the Central Asian countries for the medium and long term are proposed.
Keywords:
Central Asian region, CSTO, EAEU, Eurasian integration, regional conflicts, foreign policy tensions, territorial disputes, cross-border cooperation, common water using, scenarios for the development of integration processes
References
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2. Seleznev, I. A. (2020) On the first results of Eurasian integration, achievements and risks of the Eurasian Economic Union. Socialno-gumanitarniye znaniya. No. 6. Pp. 164-176. DOI: 10.34823/SGZ.2020.5.51488 (in Russ.).
3. Evseev, V. O., Seleznev, I. A. (2021) Conflict management and methods of research of regional conflicts. CITISE. No. 3. Pp. 79-95. DOI: 10.15350/2409-7616.2021.3.07 (in Russ.).
4. The Trends of World Social-Political Development under the Crizis conditions (2012) Ed. by E. Sh. Gontmakher, N. V. Zagladin. M. : IMEMO RAS Publ. 150 p. ISBN 978-5-9535-0331-0 (in Russ.).
5. Fomin, M. V. (2010) Post-Soviet space. In: Russia in the New Century: a Foreign policy dimension: collection of articles. M., 2010. Pp. 172-180 (in Russ.).
6. Malysheva, D. B. (2014) Security challenges in Central Asia. Russia and the Muslim World. No. 1. Pp. 76-94 (in Russ.).
7. Evseev, V. O. (2021) Methodology of the application of expert systems for the analysis of regional conflicts. CITISE. No. 3. Pp. 65-78. DOI: 10.15350/2409-7616.2021.3.06 (in Russ.).
8. Reeves, M. (2014) Border Work: Spatial Lives of the State in Rural Central Asia. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press. 312 p. ISBN 978-0-8014-4997-0 (in Eng.).
9. Gudimenko, D. V. (2021) Nationalism in the contemporary world: typologization and ways of manifestation. Issues of National and Federative Relations. Vol. 11. No. 10 (79). Pp. 2710-2719. DOI: 10.35775/PSI.2021.79.10.003 (in Russ.).
10. Matveeva, A. (2017) Divided We Fall… or Rise? Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan border dilemma. Cambridge Journal of Eurasian Studies. No. 1. Pp. 1-20. DOI: 10.22261/94D4RC (in Eng.).
11. Toktomushev, K. (2018) Understanding the cross-border conflict in post-Soviet Central Asia: the case of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Connections. Quarterly Journal. Vol. 17. No. 1. Pp. 23-46. DOI: 10.11610/Connections.rus.17.1.02 (in Russ.).
12. Fomin, M. V. (2010) Russia. The matrix of social (non)stability. World economy and international relations. No. 8. Pp. 56-68 (in Russ.).
13. Levashov, V. K. [et al] (2019) Russian civil society and state in processes of the Eurasian integration. Science. Culture. Society. Vol. 25. No. 3-4. Pp. 66-77. DOI: 10.38085/2308829X-2019-3-4-66-77 (in Russ.).
Article
Received: 14.12.2021
Accepted: 25.03.2022
Citation Formats
Other cite formats:
APA
Seleznev, I. A. (2022). Eurasian integration and the interstate conflict potential of the countries of the Central Asian region. Science. Culture. Society, 28(1), 6-19. https://doi.org/10.19181/nko.2022.28.1.1
Section
Modern political processes in Russia and abroad
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